(for waste management plans, studies and expert opinion)

A waste prognosis is required for comprehensive waste management planning e.g. for waste management plans on regional or local level. On the other hand a waste prognosis is a useful instrument for the planning of waste treatment facilities. As a first step the current status has to be recorded with respect to waste amount and waste composition by means of a waste analysis. Based on this reliable data, it is now possible to forecast the development of waste amount within a defined prognosis period. In case of a waste treatment plant the duration of the prognosis period should be adapted to the average useful life of the plant. Waste prognosis minimise the risk of bad planning and are an important instrument for a sustainable development in waste management.

ARGUS conducts waste management prognosis applying a combination of prognosis and scenario. Therefore the scientific prognosis approach is linked with the scenario technique. In the scenario technique a number of consequential steps are described which might lead from the current state to a certain situation in the future. Therefore it is necessary to identify and quantify relevant influencing parameters and frame conditions. Based on this information there will be developed three prognosis scenarios (minimum, maximum und null option).

Selected references
1.   Waste management plan Saxony
2.   Waste analysis Berlin 2002/03
3.   Prognosis for hazardous waste, sewage sludge and C&D waste in Thuringia 2003/04